The last federal reading of the heating season put residential heating oil at $5.535 a gallon on March 30, 2026, up $1.865 from a year earlier (EIA weekly survey). An average oil-heated household burned about 399 gallons last winter by EIA’s estimate, and at that March price a season’s worth of oil costs about $2,208, compared with the $1,390 EIA forecast last October. Propane barely moved over the same period, ending March at $2.674 a gallon, 1.6 cents below a year earlier. If you heat with oil, the price you lock in this fall matters more than the weather. If you heat with propane, your state matters more than the market.
EIA pauses its weekly price survey from April to September and says residential data for both fuels returns in October 2026, so there is no official current-week number yet. EIA’s Winter Fuels Outlook, released October 6, forecasts $2,115 for an oil-heated home this winter at $5.26 a gallon, up 21%; the section below has the full picture. This guide uses the last verified readings and shows the arithmetic so you can swap in the price on your own delivery ticket. For the all-fuels picture, see our guide to winter heating costs in 2026.
How Heating Oil Prices Moved Last Winter
Heating oil started the 2025-26 season cheap and ended it expensive. These are EIA’s weekly U.S. residential averages:
| Week | Heating oil, $/gal |
|---|---|
| Oct. 6, 2025 | $3.555 |
| Jan. 5, 2026 | $3.640 |
| Feb. 2, 2026 | $4.052 |
| Mar. 2, 2026 | $4.268 |
| Mar. 9, 2026 | $5.091 |
| Mar. 30, 2026 | $5.535 |
Prices were nearly flat from October through January, reached $4.268 by March 2, then jumped 82 cents in a single week to $5.091 on March 9. The wholesale price EIA tracks, $4.711 a gallon on March 30, was up $2.295 in a year, so retail followed wholesale rather than leading it.
EIA’s own forecast missed it. In October 2025 the Winter Fuels Outlook put heating oil at $3.48 a gallon for November to March and household spending at $1,390. The March price was about 59% above that forecast (our arithmetic), so treat any fall forecast as a starting point.
What a Season of Heating Oil Costs
EIA’s 2025-26 outlook assumed an average oil-heated household uses 399 gallons between November and March. Heating oil is the main heating fuel in about 3% of U.S. homes, mostly in the Northeast. Multiplying that usage by three price points from last winter:
| Price per gallon | 100 gallons (one fill) | 399 gallons (a season) |
|---|---|---|
| $3.555 (Oct. 2025) | $356 | $1,418 |
| $4.073 (Feb. 2026) | $407 | $1,625 |
| $5.535 (Mar. 2026) | $554 | $2,208 |
Your usage may differ a lot, so check the gallons on your last three delivery tickets.
Prices vary a lot by state
The national average hides a wide spread. On March 30, EIA’s state data showed heating oil at $5.913 in Delaware and $3.972 in Nebraska, with the East Coast averaging $5.583 and the Midwest $4.491. A difference of more than a dollar a gallon on 399 gallons is over $400 a winter, so a dealer one county over can matter.
Propane: Calmer, but Very Regional
Propane did not spike. EIA’s weekly residential price was $2.417 in October 2025 and $2.674 on March 30, 2026, with $2.548 at the end of December and the mid-$2.60s from February, as reported by the tracker propanepricepergallon.com from EIA data. Wholesale propane was $1.041 a gallon at the end of March, about 1 cent lower than a year earlier.
The retail price depends heavily on where you live. On March 30:
| Region or state | Propane, $/gal |
|---|---|
| Connecticut (highest tracked) | $4.116 |
| East Coast (EIA region) | $3.596 |
| U.S. average | $2.674 |
| Midwest | $2.184 |
| Nebraska (lowest tracked) | $1.642 |
Propane is the main heating fuel in about 5% of U.S. homes, mostly rural. EIA’s 2025-26 outlook put an average propane household at $1,210 for the winter at $2.46 a gallon, which implies about 492 gallons (our arithmetic). At the March price of $2.674, that same usage costs about $1,315, or roughly $105 more than forecast.
Which Fuel Delivers Heat Cheapest
Fuels are sold in different units, so the fair comparison is the cost per million Btu of heat that actually reaches the house. Using EIA’s heat contents (138,500 Btu per gallon of heating oil, 91,452 per gallon of propane, 1,036 per cubic foot of natural gas) and our assumptions of 80% efficiency for oil and propane equipment and 95% for a gas furnace:
| Fuel and price used | Cost per million Btu delivered |
|---|---|
| Heating oil, $5.535 (Mar. 2026) | about $50 |
| Heating oil, $3.555 (Oct. 2025) | about $32 |
| Propane, $2.674 (Mar. 2026) | about $37 |
| Electric resistance, 18.31¢/kWh (EIA, July 2026) | about $54 |
| Natural gas, $13.50 per thousand cubic feet | about $14 |
| Heat pump, 18.31¢/kWh at a COP of 2.5 (our assumption) | about $21 |
Gas uses EIA’s winter 2025-26 assumption of $13.50 per thousand cubic feet. These are our arithmetic and ignore fixed charges and service contracts.
At last March’s prices, oil was roughly 3.6 times as expensive as gas per unit of heat, and about 2.3 times a heat pump. At October’s price it was still more than double gas. That gap is why oil-heated homes in the Northeast are the main customers for heat pump conversions. Our heat pump vs gas furnace and heat pump installation cost guides cover the up-front costs, and the heat pump payback calculator lets you enter your own gallons and prices.
How to Spend Less
Fuel price is the part you can’t control, so work on the other two inputs: gallons used and price per gallon.
- Compare dealers before the first fill. The state spread above suggests dealer pricing can differ by a dollar or more. Get at least three quotes for the same quantity and ask whether the price is fixed, capped or follows the market.
- Weigh a fixed-price or capped plan carefully. Last winter’s rise happened in March, after most of the season. A cap protects against that, but a fixed price set in a spike can also cost more than the market later. Read how the contract treats a price drop.
- Burn fewer gallons. Air sealing and attic insulation are the cheapest heat you can buy; see our attic insulation cost guide. A programmable setback can trim the rest, as covered in smart thermostat savings.
- Service the boiler or furnace annually. A dirty burner wastes fuel. The annual HVAC maintenance cost guide shows what a tune-up usually runs.
- Consider a supplement. A mini-split or a pellet stove can carry the mild days; see our wood stove vs pellet stove cost guide.
What to Expect This Winter
EIA’s Winter Fuels Outlook, released October 6, 2026, gives the official base case for November through March. Heating oil is forecast at $5.26 a gallon on average, up 34% from last winter, and the average oil-heated household at $2,115, up 21%. The bill rises less than the price because EIA expects a milder winter in the Northeast, where most oil-heated homes are (heating degree days down 12%). Propane is forecast at $2.52 a gallon, down 2%, and a household total of $1,246, down 3%; Northeast propane homes are forecast at $1,687, down 15%. EIA’s October outlook puts Brent crude at a $96 average for 2026 and diesel at $5.19.
Treat $2,115 as a base case, not a quote: a colder winter pushes it higher.
The Bottom Line
Heating oil ended last winter at $5.535 a gallon, up from $3.555 in October, and a typical 399-gallon season costs between about $1,418 and $2,208 depending on which price you used. Propane stayed near $2.67, though a Connecticut buyer paid $4.12 and a Nebraska buyer $1.64. Shop your dealer, cut gallons with insulation, and price a heat pump if you are in the high-cost group.
FAQ
How much is heating oil per gallon in 2026?
EIA’s last weekly reading of the 2025-26 season, on March 30, 2026, put the U.S. residential average at $5.535 a gallon, up $1.865 from a year earlier. Weekly prices for the new season resume in October 2026. Call your dealer for today’s price; it can differ from the national figure by a dollar or more.
How many gallons of heating oil does a house use in a winter?
EIA’s 2025-26 Winter Fuels Outlook assumed an average oil-heated household uses 399 gallons from November through March. Actual use varies with house size, insulation and local weather, so check your last year’s delivery tickets.
Is propane cheaper than heating oil right now?
Per unit of heat, yes, at last March’s prices. Our arithmetic gives about $37 per million Btu delivered for propane at $2.674 a gallon against about $50 for heating oil at $5.535, assuming 80% equipment efficiency for both. At October 2025 prices the two were about even, about $33 for propane vs $32 for oil, so the answer depends on the week you ask.
Should I fill my oil tank now or wait?
Nobody can reliably time it. Last winter’s price was flat for four months and then jumped in March, so waiting cost money, but prices can fall too. A reasonable approach is to fill part of the tank at a competitive price now, get quotes from several dealers, and ask about a capped-price plan that still lets you benefit if prices drop.
Is it worth switching from heating oil to a heat pump?
Often, if your electricity price is moderate. At 18.31¢ per kWh and a COP of 2.5 (our assumption), heat pump heat costs about $21 per million Btu delivered against about $32 to $50 for oil at last year’s prices. The up-front install cost is the hurdle, so run your numbers in the heat pump payback calculator.