Compare your current heating bill with a heat pump. See conservative, typical and optimistic savings — and how many years until you break even.
Updated September 2026 · Free · No sign-up
Will a heat pump pay off?
Estimated payback
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Scenario
Saved / yr
Payback
Savings depend heavily on local electricity vs. fuel prices and how cold your winters are.
How we calculate payback
Payback = (installed quote − rebates − any AC you avoid buying) ÷ yearly savings. Yearly savings are your current heating cost multiplied by a typical saving rate for your fuel, then shown in three scenarios to reflect climate and price differences.
What makes payback faster
Expensive current fuel: oil, propane and electric resistance heat benefit most.
Rebates: utility and state programs can take thousands off the price — check before you sign.
Replacing AC at the same time: one system does both jobs.
Good insulation and air sealing: a smaller unit may be enough.
Frequently asked questions
How long does a heat pump take to pay for itself?
It varies widely. Homes switching from electric resistance, oil or propane often see payback in 5–10 years. Homes switching from cheap natural gas can take 12 years or more, unless rebates are large or the AC also needed replacing.
How much can a heat pump save on heating?
Compared with electric baseboard, a heat pump commonly cuts heating energy use by half or more. Savings versus natural gas are smaller and depend on local electricity and gas prices.
Do heat pumps work in cold climates?
Modern cold-climate heat pumps keep producing heat well below freezing, but efficiency drops as temperatures fall. In very cold areas many homes keep a backup heat source for the coldest days.
Should I count my air conditioner in the math?
Yes. A heat pump heats and cools, so if your AC is near the end of its life, the AC you no longer need to buy is a real saving. Tick the AC option in the calculator to include it.
