A whole-house air-source heat pump costs $9,000 to $22,000 installed, with a typical 3-ton ducted replacement for a 2,000 square foot home landing between $12,000 and $16,000. Ductless multi-zone systems for the same house usually run $8,000 to $18,000, and cold-climate rated equipment pushes toward the upper half of every range.
One thing to clear up immediately, because half the articles online still get it wrong: there is no federal tax credit for heat pumps in 2026. The 25C credit, worth up to $2,000, expired December 31, 2025. State and utility rebates still exist and can be worth real money, but plan your budget without the IRS.
What Drives the Price
Heat pump quotes vary more than furnace quotes because the equipment tier matters and the supporting work varies by house.
| Cost component | Typical range | What changes it |
|---|---|---|
| Equipment (outdoor unit + air handler or heads) | $4,500–$12,000 | Capacity, efficiency tier, cold-climate rating |
| Installation labor | $2,000–$4,500 | Region, complexity, duct condition |
| Electrical (circuit, disconnect, sometimes panel work) | $300–$3,500 | Panel capacity and distance |
| Line set, pad, materials, thermostat | $500–$1,300 | Run length, thermostat tier |
| Permit and inspection | $100–$600 | Local fees |
| Total, ducted replacement | $9,000–$22,000 |
Component minimums don’t stack; even the easiest real job carries trip charges and contractor markup, which is why observed quotes bottom out near $9,000 rather than at the sum of the low ends.
Three add-ons move a quote toward the top of the range. A panel upgrade runs $1,500 to $3,500 when the box is full, though most 3-ton installs fit on an existing 200-amp service without one. Duct replacement or sealing adds $4,000 to $10,000 if the existing ducts are falling apart, which is common in houses over 30 years old. A cold-climate rated unit carries a 15 to 25 percent equipment premium over a standard model.
Equipment tier alone spans thousands. A single-stage builder-grade 3-ton unit starts near $4,500 in equipment. A variable-speed unit from Mitsubishi, Daikin, Bosch, or Carrier that modulates down to 25 percent capacity can run $9,000 to $12,000 before installation. The variable unit is quieter and dehumidifies better. It also uses measurably less power in shoulder seasons, though the payback depends on your electricity price.
What Homeowners Actually Pay
Example 1: 1,900 sq ft single-story in Dallas, replacing a dead AC and gas furnace with one ducted heat pump. Existing ducts in decent shape, panel has room.
- Equipment (3-ton, mid-tier variable): $6,800
- Labor: $2,600
- Electrical: $450
- Materials, pad, line set, thermostat: $800
- Permit: $250
- Total: $10,900
Example 2: 2,000 sq ft two-story in Minnesota, cold-climate conversion. Winter design temperature makes a standard unit a bad idea here, so the spec includes a cold-climate 3-ton unit and electric backup strips.
- Equipment (cold-climate rated + aux heat): $9,200
- Labor: $3,200
- Electrical (new 40-amp circuit): $900
- Materials and thermostat: $1,000
- Permit: $300
- Total: $14,600
Example 3: 1,600 sq ft ranch in Sacramento with no ductwork. Four indoor heads cover the house, no duct construction needed.
- Equipment (4-zone ductless): $7,400
- Labor: $2,800
- Materials, line sets, drains: $1,100
- Electrical (new circuit + disconnect): $950
- Permit: $200
- Total: $12,450
Notice the pattern: the ductless job costs about the same as the ducted one despite simpler equipment, because four heads means four installs. Neither is cheap. They’re just expensive in different places.
Cold-Climate Performance, Briefly
A heat pump is an air conditioner running in reverse, and its output falls as outdoor temperature falls. Standard units lose meaningful capacity by 20°F. Cold-climate models from Mitsubishi, Daikin, and others hold rated capacity down to around 5°F and keep running below zero, at 2 to 3 times the efficiency of resistance heat.
Below that, backup electric strips take over, and strips are resistance heat at full utility price. That’s why Minnesota quotes include them but nobody in Georgia pays for them. Sizing matters more in cold climates than anywhere else: the unit has to cover most winter days without leaning on strips every morning, and a Manual J load calculation is the only honest way to get there.
Ways to Pay Less
Get three written quotes and make them itemize the same scope. The spread between quotes on identical heat pump jobs regularly exceeds $2,000. If one quote is far below the others, check what it excludes: electrical, disposal, and thermostat are the usual dodges. Our contractor red flags guide lists the warning signs.
Book in the off-season. Heat pump installs compete with AC season and furnace season, which leaves spring and fall windows where crews are slow. Savings of $300 to $800 versus a July booking are common.
Right-size instead of oversizing. Bigger isn’t better with heat pumps. An oversized unit short-cycles, costs more upfront, and in cold climates still needs strips at the exact same outdoor temperature.
Chase state and utility rebates, not federal ones. Utilities in Massachusetts, Colorado, Minnesota, and California, among others, have paid $500 to $2,000 toward qualifying installs. Programs change constantly and some require pre-approval before work begins. DSIRE maintains the current list, and your utility’s efficiency page is worth five minutes before you sign anything.
Mistakes to Avoid
Budgeting around a federal credit that no longer exists. This is the big one in 2026. The 25C credit ended December 31, 2025. Content written during 2025 still promises $2,000 back on your taxes, and contractors who haven’t updated their pitch still say it. Verify anything a salesperson tells you about incentives against DSIRE.
Assuming your ducts are fine. A $14,000 heat pump pushing air through leaky attic ducts wastes 20 to 30 percent of its work. Get the ducts inspected, and if they’re bad, price the repair honestly with our ductwork replacement cost guide before you commit.
Leaving the thermostat in “emergency heat.” Backup strips cost two to three times as much per unit of heat as the compressor. If your energy bill spikes the first cold snap, check the thermostat mode before blaming the unit.
Buying efficiency you can’t use. Variable-speed equipment earns its premium in long, mild shoulder seasons. In a mild climate with cheap electricity, a mid-tier unit often penciled out better in our payback calculator runs than the flagship model.
The Bottom Line
Plan on $12,000 to $16,000 for a typical ducted whole-house install and $8,000 to $18,000 for ductless, with cold-climate equipment and panel or duct work as what pushes the high end toward $22,000. No federal credit is coming to soften the bill this year, so the decision rests on your energy prices and your climate. Run your own numbers in the heat pump payback calculator, then get three quotes. If you’re weighing a heat pump against keeping gas, our heat pump vs gas furnace comparison covers the operating-cost math in detail.
FAQ
How much does a heat pump cost compared to an AC plus furnace?
A heat pump replacing both usually costs $2,000 to $5,000 more than a comparable AC and air handler setup, because you’re buying one machine that does two jobs. Against a new high-efficiency furnace and AC together, it’s often close to even. The operating-cost difference depends entirely on your local gas and electricity prices.
Do ductless heat pumps cost less to install?
For houses without ductwork, yes, dramatically. Ductless multi-zone systems run $8,000 to $18,000 whole-house, while central with new ducts often runs $10,000 to $20,000. For houses with good ducts, ducted heat pumps are usually the same or cheaper than a comparable multi-zone ductless system. Our mini split cost guide covers the ductless pricing in depth.
Are heat pumps worth it in cold climates?
Modern cold-climate models work well in Minnesota and Maine, but the economics depend on what you’re replacing. Against electric resistance heat or propane, they save serious money. Against an 80-percent-efficient gas furnace in a state with $0.60 per therm gas, they often don’t. The backup strips are your safety net, not your plan.
What size heat pump do I need?
Expect roughly one ton per 600 to 1,000 square feet for a reasonably insulated house, which puts most homes between 2 and 4 tons. That rule ignores insulation quality, ceiling height, sun exposure, and climate, all of which move the answer. Insist on a Manual J load calculation; any contractor who sizes from the old unit’s nameplate is guessing.